The French real estate market went through a correction phase in 2024 that has rarely been observed in the past decade. With a decline in transactions, tightening energy regulations, and a reshaping of new supply, the usual benchmarks for buyers and owners have shifted. Understanding these trends allows for better-calibrated decisions, whether one is looking to buy, sell, or renovate.
DPE and rental bans: the true driving force behind the redistribution of the real estate market
Have you noticed that some sales listings now mention the energy class in large letters? This is not a passing trend. Since the gradual implementation of the schedule from the Climate and Resilience law, the DPE has become a criterion for the liquidity of a property, not just an administrative document.
Specifically, properties rated G are the first affected by the rental ban. This constraint alters the decisions of landlord owners: keep the property by undertaking major renovations, or sell before the depreciation worsens. On the ground, this translates into an influx of energy-intensive properties on the resale market, often offered with a wider negotiation margin.
For a buyer, this is a window of opportunity as long as they accurately assess the cost of renovation. For a seller, delaying renovations means accepting a gradual loss of value. The DPE no longer just ranks thermal performance: it prioritizes the asset value of properties.
This topic is part of the developments regularly found in all the news from Mon Habitat Web, where regulatory changes are closely monitored.
MaPrimeRénov’ refocused on comprehensive renovation: what this changes for a housing project
Until recently, replacing a boiler or insulating a wall was enough to obtain assistance. In 2024, the National Housing Agency (Anah) redirected MaPrimeRénov’ towards large-scale renovations. Supported pathways and bundles of work are prioritized, while assistance for single actions has been repeatedly restricted.
Why this shift? A window replacement alone does little to improve a property’s DPE rating. A comprehensive renovation (wall insulation, roof, ventilation, heating system change) can achieve a two-class improvement in one go. The state is thus pushing owners towards more ambitious projects.
Practical consequences for owners
- The remaining cost increases, as bundled work is more expensive even with enhanced assistance. A solid financing plan has become a prerequisite.
- Support from an approved operator (Mon Accompagnateur Rénov’) is required to access the highest levels of assistance. This extends the project timeline by several weeks.
- Qualified RGE craftsmen are in high demand, creating waiting times in certain regions, particularly in Île-de-France and around Toulouse.
This reform transforms energy renovation into a true construction-rehabilitation project. Owners who anticipate this logic find themselves better positioned, both for the valuation of their home and for rental compliance.
Real estate promotion crisis and shortage of new housing
The new construction sector experienced a marked decline in 2024. The crisis is not limited to a drop in sales: it directly affects the launch of new programs. Several developers have frozen operations due to insufficient marketing beforehand.
The mechanism is quite simple to understand. When credit rates rise, buyers lose borrowing capacity. Reservations in VEFA (sale in future completion state) plummet. Without a sufficient pre-marketing rate, banks do not finance the project. The program is postponed or canceled.
A growing housing deficit
Each quarter without new construction deepens the supply deficit. In stressed metropolitan areas like Paris or Toulouse, this imbalance keeps existing housing prices at high levels despite the overall correction. Real estate professionals warn of a risk of structural shortage in the medium term, particularly for accessible family housing.
New housing represents a lever for price regulation that the current crisis weakens durably. Local authorities, which depend on building permits to meet their production targets, also find themselves in difficulty.
Transaction volume and mortgage credit: signals from the end of 2024
The volume of transactions for existing homes continued to decline throughout the year. According to notaries, the cumulative figure over twelve rolling months reached a level not seen since the end of 2015. The annual decline has stabilized around -22% over several consecutive months.
On the credit side, the European Central Bank began lowering its key rates in June 2024 after nine months of status quo. This signal has started to loosen the grip on the borrowing rates offered to individuals. The first noticeable decreases in housing loan interest rates have given households a bit more leeway.
Should we see this as the beginning of a recovery? Caution remains advisable. The September 2024 return has been described as “pivotal” by notaries, as demand remains fragile. A sustainable return of confidence requires several quarters of declining rates, combined with a stabilization of prices that allows buyers to project themselves.
- First-time buyers remain the most penalized by the tightening of lending conditions applied since 2022.
- The coastal market has begun to record initial price declines, offering entry points in previously inaccessible areas.
- Old co-ownerships requiring renovation work are where the most active negotiations are concentrated.
The real estate market of 2024 is not just a simple cycle of decline. It combines a correction in prices, a regulatory shock on energy performance, and a crisis of new supply that will have effects well beyond this year. Buyers who integrate these three dimensions into their project analysis have a more reliable framework than those who wait for a single signal of recovery.
